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Dominant Swansea run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Blackburn.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Blackburn 3-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.98 xG and Blackburn 1.16 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Blackburn landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against Blackburn attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 30% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 39%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 53%, Blackburn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Blackburn's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.19 PPG, Blackburn 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights