Swansea 0-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and Birmingham meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 39. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swansea have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Swansea.com Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Birmingham's overall Championship record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Birmingham away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Swansea's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Birmingham's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Swansea have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Birmingham in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Swansea, 1 for Birmingham and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Birmingham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 44% versus Birmingham 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 53% | Birmingham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.87 xG and Birmingham 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.079 / defence 1.382 | Birmingham attack 0.916 / defence 1.613. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.057. Birmingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.613 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Swansea games / 38 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 50% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 27%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Birmingham 3.70. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 60% | Birmingham 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 50% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Swansea 1.87 / Birmingham 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.079 / def 1.382 | Birmingham attack 0.916 / def 1.613 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Swansea (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Birmingham xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Birmingham kick off?
Swansea vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Birmingham?
Swansea 0 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Swansea vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Birmingham part of?
Swansea vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 50% chance of winning, Birmingham a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Swansea and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Birmingham?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Birmingham 1W.
What form are Swansea and Birmingham in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Birmingham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Swansea's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.92x) against Swansea's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 36/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.36
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Swansea xG
Total xG
3.21
1.34
Birmingham xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
4%
23.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Swansea and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Swansea and 1.34 for Birmingham, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Swansea come into this having played 36 games, going 13W 8D 15L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.03 PPG from 36 outings (9W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Swansea against 1.03 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Swansea's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (2W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Swansea are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.14 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 13W 8D 15L in their last 36 games (1.31 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Birmingham away?
Swansea's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.65 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Swansea or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Birmingham in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Swansea
5
Draws
3
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Birmingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, Birmingham have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Swansea 1-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Swansea see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 47%, Birmingham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Swansea) and 53% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Birmingham in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Swansea's recent matches and 53% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Swansea's recent games and 53% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Birmingham tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Swansea's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea and Birmingham finished level at 0-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.87 xG and Birmingham 1.34 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Swansea fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Birmingham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.08 / defence 1.38 against Birmingham attack 0.92 / defence 1.61, drawn from 36/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 50% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 27%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 53%, Birmingham 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Birmingham's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.31 PPG, Birmingham 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.