Sunderland vs Stoke City – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.08) and Stoke City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
51%
1.97
32%
3.16
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sunderland xG
Total xG
1.97
0.66
Stoke City xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
5%
21.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.1 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.66 for Stoke City, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.