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Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.20 xG and QPR 1.02 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against QPR attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 40% | Draw 29% | QPR 31%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 45%, QPR 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

QPR's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.45 PPG, QPR 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights