Sunderland 0-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sunderland host Preston at Stadium of Light in Championship, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sunderland — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadium of Light — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Sunderland) versus 1.20 (Preston). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Sunderland in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Preston in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 52% versus Preston 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 55% | Preston 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 0.86 xG and Preston 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.968 / defence 1.105 | Preston attack 0.800 / defence 0.685. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.062. Preston's defence strength of 0.685 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Sunderland games / 56 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 31% | Draw 33% | Preston 36%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Preston 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Sunderland's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Preston as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preston offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 50% | Preston 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 31% | Draw 33% | Preston 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Sunderland 0.86 / Preston 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.968 / def 1.105 | Preston attack 0.800 / def 0.685 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Preston (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Preston xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Preston kick off?
Sunderland vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Preston?
Sunderland 0 - 0 Preston.
Where is Sunderland vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Preston part of?
Sunderland vs Preston is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 31% chance of winning, Preston a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Sunderland and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Preston?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Preston in?
Sunderland (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Preston (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 0.97x the league average against Preston's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
31%
3.19
33%
3.04
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Sunderland xG
Total xG
1.80
0.94
Preston xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.94 for Preston, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland come into this having played 56 games, going 28W 16D 12L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.36 PPG from 56 outings (18W 22D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Preston — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sunderland's home form reads 17W 5D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.30 points per game from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 0.98 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Preston in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Preston in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 28W 16D 12L in their last 56 games (1.79 PPG), while Preston have gone 18W 22D 16L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Preston away?
Sunderland's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.07 PPG; Preston away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Preston in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Preston runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2023, when Sunderland won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sunderland's record when hosting Preston specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
3
Draws
1
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Preston?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Preston have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2025, when Sunderland 1-1 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Preston?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Preston see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 52%, Preston 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sunderland) and 37% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Preston in 41%; Preston in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sunderland's recent matches and 30% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sunderland's recent games and 37% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Preston tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Preston in 41% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sunderland's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 12, as Sunderland and Preston drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 0.86 xG and Preston 0.94 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sunderland fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Preston landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Preston attack 0.80 / defence 0.69, drawn from 10/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 31% | Draw 33% | Preston 36%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 55%, Preston 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Preston's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.