Sunderland 1-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sunderland host Preston at Stadium of Light in Championship, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sunderland — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadium of Light — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Preston's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sunderland register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Preston in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Sunderland have won 2, Preston 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sunderland in-play tendencies (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Preston in-play tendencies (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Preston 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 48% | Preston 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.35 xG and Preston 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.013 / defence 0.979 | Preston attack 0.882 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.029. Data: 82 Sunderland games / 82 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 47% | Draw 28% | Preston 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Preston 4.17. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Sunderland 70% | Preston 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 47% | Draw 28% | Preston 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Sunderland 1.35 / Preston 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.013 / def 0.979 | Preston attack 0.882 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Preston xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Preston kick off?
Sunderland vs Preston kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 11 March 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Preston?
Sunderland 1 - 1 Preston.
Where is Sunderland vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Preston part of?
Sunderland vs Preston is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 47% chance of winning, Preston a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sunderland and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Preston?
Record (5 meetings): Sunderland 2W | Draws 2 | Preston 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Preston in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Preston (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.01x the league average against Preston's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.52
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.23
0.89
Preston xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.89 for Preston, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland come into this having played 82 games, going 35W 19D 28L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.29 PPG from 82 outings (27W 25D 30L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.51 PPG, Preston on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sunderland's home form reads 21W 8D 12L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.00 points per game from 41 outings (10W 11D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.12 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Preston in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 35W 19D 28L in their last 82 games (1.51 PPG), while Preston have gone 27W 25D 30L in their last 82 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Preston away?
Sunderland's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.73 PPG; Preston away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Preston in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Preston runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2023, when Sunderland won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sunderland's record when hosting Preston specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
3
Draws
1
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Preston?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Preston have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2025, when Sunderland 1-1 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Preston?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 46%, Preston 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sunderland) and 49% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 27% of games; Preston in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sunderland's recent matches and 46% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sunderland's recent games and 49% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Preston tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Preston in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland and Preston share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 37, as Sunderland and Preston drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.35 xG and Preston 0.89 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Preston attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 47% | Draw 28% | Preston 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 48%, Preston 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Preston's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.51 PPG, Preston 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.