Sunderland 1-0 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium of Light plays host to Sunderland versus Middlesbrough in Championship, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sunderland have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadium of Light, Sunderland have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadium of Light this season.
Middlesbrough (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Middlesbrough have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Middlesbrough have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sunderland, 2 for Middlesbrough and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Middlesbrough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 43% versus Middlesbrough 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 47% | Middlesbrough 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.29 xG and Middlesbrough 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.081 / defence 0.859 | Middlesbrough attack 1.072 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.134. Data: 51 Sunderland games / 51 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 42% | Draw 28% | Middlesbrough 30%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Middlesbrough 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 30% | Middlesbrough 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 42% | Draw 28% | Middlesbrough 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sunderland 1.29 / Middlesbrough 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.081 / def 0.859 | Middlesbrough attack 1.072 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Middlesbrough xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Sunderland vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Middlesbrough?
Sunderland 1 - 0 Middlesbrough.
Where is Sunderland vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Middlesbrough part of?
Sunderland vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 42% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sunderland and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Middlesbrough?
Record (4 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 1 | Middlesbrough 2W.
What form are Sunderland and Middlesbrough in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Middlesbrough (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.08x the league average against Middlesbrough's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Middlesbrough's attack (1.07x) against Sunderland's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.59
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.33
1.04
Middlesbrough xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.04 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sunderland come into this having played 51 games, going 20W 8D 23L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.51 PPG from 51 outings (22W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Middlesbrough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Sunderland against 1.51 for Middlesbrough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sunderland's home form reads 12W 2D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 1.52 points per game from 25 outings (11W 5D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Sunderland are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.51 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Middlesbrough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 20W 8D 23L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Middlesbrough away?
Sunderland's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.52 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sunderland go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won 0-4 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sunderland
1
Draws
2
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Middlesbrough?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 3, Middlesbrough have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Middlesbrough 2-3 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Middlesbrough?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 40%, Middlesbrough 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Sunderland and 64% for Middlesbrough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Middlesbrough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sunderland's recent matches and 68% of Middlesbrough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sunderland's matches and 64% of Middlesbrough's.
Do Sunderland and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Middlesbrough 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Middlesbrough 1-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.29 xG and Middlesbrough 1.04 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Middlesbrough landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Middlesbrough attack 1.07 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 42% | Draw 28% | Middlesbrough 30%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 47%, Middlesbrough 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.33 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.