Sunderland 1-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 50%, yet in-form Ipswich provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sunderland vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 1 as Sunderland welcome Ipswich to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sunderland haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadium of Light, Sunderland have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadium of Light this season.
Ipswich — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Ipswich haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ipswich's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ipswich are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sunderland, 0 for Ipswich and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 59% versus Ipswich 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | Ipswich 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.68 xG and Ipswich 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.066 / defence 1.164 | Ipswich attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.115. Data: 46 Sunderland games / 0 Ipswich games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 50% | Draw 26% | Ipswich 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Ipswich 4.17. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ipswich (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 90% | Ipswich 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 50% | Draw 26% | Ipswich 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Sunderland 1.68 / Ipswich 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.066 / def 1.164 | Ipswich attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ipswich xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Ipswich kick off?
Sunderland vs Ipswich kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Sunderland 1 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Sunderland vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Ipswich part of?
Sunderland vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 50% chance of winning, Ipswich a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sunderland and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Ipswich?
Record (2 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Ipswich in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.07) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (46/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.88
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.79
1.10
Ipswich xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
4%
22.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.10 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 18W 14D 14L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. Sunderland haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ipswich's form line: 28W 14D 4L from 46 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. Ipswich haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Ipswich are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sunderland.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 12W 8D 3L from 23 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.20 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Pre-Season
Ipswich
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 18W 14D 14L in their last 46 games (1.48 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 28W 14D 4L in their last 46 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.39 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ipswich in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ipswich have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sunderland's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
2
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Ipswich have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 65%, Ipswich 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sunderland) and 52% (Ipswich). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sunderland's games and 52% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sunderland's matches and 52% of Ipswich's.
Do Sunderland and Ipswich tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ipswich defy the odds to beat Sunderland 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Sunderland 1-2 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.68 xG and Ipswich 1.10 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.07 / defence 1.16 against Ipswich attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 50% | Draw 26% | Ipswich 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Ipswich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 54%, Ipswich 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Ipswich's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.