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Shock result as Blackburn defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackburn beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.13 xG and Blackburn 0.80 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Blackburn attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 43% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 26%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 46%, Blackburn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Blackburn's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.48 PPG, Blackburn 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights