Sunderland 0-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sunderland welcome Blackburn to Stadium of Light in Championship (matchday 44). Kick-off is Monday 21 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sunderland — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Sunderland have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Blackburn have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Blackburn have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Sunderland have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Sunderland, 2 for Blackburn and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2024, ended Sunderland 2–2 Blackburn — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 46% versus Blackburn 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 46% | Blackburn 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.13 xG and Blackburn 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.934 / defence 0.954 | Blackburn attack 0.836 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.000. Data: built from Sunderland's last 89 games and Blackburn's last 89.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 43% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 26%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.31 | Draw 3.23 | Blackburn 3.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sunderland's last 10 home games and Blackburn's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sunderland 50% (last 10 home games) | Blackburn 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, matchday 44 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 43% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Sunderland 1.13 / Blackburn 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.934 / def 0.954 | Blackburn attack 0.836 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Blackburn xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Blackburn kick off?
Sunderland vs Blackburn kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 21 April 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Sunderland vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Blackburn part of?
Sunderland vs Blackburn is a Championship fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 43% chance of winning, Blackburn a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Sunderland and Blackburn will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Sunderland vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 0.93x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 89 games and Blackburn's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.23
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Sunderland xG
Total xG
1.92
0.80
Blackburn xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.80 for Blackburn, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland's recent record stands at 37W 21D 31L from 89 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 31W 19D 39L across 89 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.48 PPG, Blackburn on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 22W 9D 13L from their last 44 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 14W 8D 22L across their last 44 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.22 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Blackburn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 37W 21D 31L in their last 89 games (1.48 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 31W 19D 39L in their last 89 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Blackburn away?
Sunderland's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.70 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Blackburn in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Apr 2024, when Blackburn won Sunderland 1-5 Blackburn.
Sunderland's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
1
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Blackburn?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 2, Blackburn have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Blackburn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: Sunderland 0-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 46%, Blackburn 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sunderland) and 54% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 27% of games; Blackburn in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Blackburn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sunderland's recent matches and 41% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Blackburn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sunderland's recent games and 54% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Blackburn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Sunderland's recent matches and 64% of Blackburn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Blackburn defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.13 xG and Blackburn 0.80 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Blackburn attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 43% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 26%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 46%, Blackburn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Blackburn's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.48 PPG, Blackburn 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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