Stoke City 1-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stoke City at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Swansea travel to bet365 Stadium to take on Stoke City. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 31 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Stoke City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stoke City have posted 4W 2D 4L at bet365 Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Swansea — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Swansea have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Stoke City are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Stoke City, 0 for Swansea and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2022, ended 3–0 with Stoke City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Swansea trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 50% versus Swansea 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 44% | Swansea 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.21 xG and Swansea 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.916 / defence 0.945 | Swansea attack 1.046 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.052. Data: 52 Stoke City games / 52 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 40% | Draw 29% | Swansea 32%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Swansea 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stoke City as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 30% | Swansea 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 40% | Draw 29% | Swansea 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Stoke City 1.21 / Swansea 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.916 / def 0.945 | Swansea attack 1.046 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Swansea xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Swansea kick off?
Stoke City vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Swansea?
Stoke City 1 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Stoke City vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Swansea part of?
Stoke City vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 40% chance of winning, Swansea a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Stoke City and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Swansea?
Record (2 meetings): Stoke City 2W | Draws 0 | Swansea 0W.
What form are Stoke City and Swansea in?
Stoke City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Swansea (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stoke City's attack at 0.92x the league average against Swansea's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.49
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.25
1.04
Swansea xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.04 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 12D 21L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stoke City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Swansea's form line: 17W 15D 20L from 52 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Swansea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.33 PPG, Swansea on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (11W 6D 9L).
On the road, Swansea have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Early Season
Swansea
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Swansea in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Swansea have gone 17W 15D 20L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Swansea away?
Stoke City's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.50 PPG; Swansea away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Swansea in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and Swansea runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2022, when Stoke City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stoke City's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Stoke City
3
Draws
2
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 5, Swansea have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Swansea 2-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Swansea?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 42%, Swansea 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stoke City) and 54% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Swansea in 31%; Swansea in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stoke City's recent matches and 46% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stoke City's recent games and 54% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Swansea tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Swansea in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stoke City and Swansea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City and Swansea finished level at 1-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.21 xG and Swansea 1.04 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Swansea attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 40% | Draw 29% | Swansea 32%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 44%, Swansea 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Swansea's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.33 PPG, Swansea 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.