🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Sheffield Utd defy the odds to beat Stoke City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd beat Stoke City 1-2 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.95 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.06 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stoke City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sheffield Utd outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.04 / defence 0.79 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.16 / defence 1.36, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 57% | Draw 23% | Sheffield Utd 19%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Sheffield Utd win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 39%, Sheffield Utd 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights