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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leeds cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Stoke City 0-2 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.25 xG and Leeds 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stoke City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.99 / defence 1.23 against Leeds attack 1.11 / defence 0.88, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 32% | Draw 28% | Leeds 39%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 43%, Leeds 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Leeds's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.01 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Leeds (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights