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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stoke City and Ipswich share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City and Ipswich finished level at 3-3 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.41 xG and Ipswich 1.40 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Stoke City beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ipswich outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Ipswich attack 1.19 / defence 1.15, drawn from 82/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 36% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 36%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 38%, Ipswich 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Ipswich's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.21 PPG, Ipswich 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights