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Stoke City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Derby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Derby 3-1 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.32 xG and Derby 1.03 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stoke City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Derby attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 43% | Draw 28% | Derby 29%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 37%, Derby 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Derby's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.11 PPG, Derby 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights