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Shock result as Coventry defy the odds to beat Stoke City 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Stoke City 0-1 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.76 xG and Coventry 1.53 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.28 / defence 0.84 against Coventry attack 1.58 / defence 1.11, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 43% | Draw 23% | Coventry 34%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Coventry win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 37%, Coventry 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Coventry's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.30 PPG, Coventry 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Coventry (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights