Stoke City vs Cardiff – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stoke City and Cardiff share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Stoke City and Cardiff drew 2-2 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.53 xG and Cardiff 1.01 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Cardiff attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 47% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 23%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Cardiff 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.14 PPG, Cardiff 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights