Stoke City vs Blackburn – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Stoke City (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stoke City face Blackburn.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stoke City and Blackburn meet at Bet365 Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Stoke City (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stoke City have posted 4W 2D 4L at Bet365 Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bet365 Stadium this season.
Blackburn have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Stoke City. A 1.00 PPG lead over Blackburn (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stoke City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Blackburn in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Stoke City have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 10 meetings, with Blackburn managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2026, ended 2–1 with Stoke City winning.
The historical record gives Stoke City a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Stoke City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 48% versus Blackburn 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 48% | Blackburn 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.84 xG and Blackburn 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.985 / defence 0.807 | Blackburn attack 0.904 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.292. Blackburn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Stoke City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Stoke City games / 60 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 58% | Draw 23% | Blackburn 19%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Blackburn 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Stoke City (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 60% | Blackburn 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 58% | Draw 23% | Blackburn 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Stoke City 1.84 / Blackburn 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.985 / def 0.807 | Blackburn attack 0.904 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Blackburn xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Blackburn kick off?
Stoke City vs Blackburn is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 January 2027 at Bet365 Stadium.
Where is Stoke City vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Blackburn part of?
Stoke City vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 58% chance of winning, Blackburn a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stoke City and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Blackburn?
Record (10 meetings): Stoke City 6W | Draws 2 | Blackburn 2W.
What form are Stoke City and Blackburn in?
Stoke City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Blackburn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (0.98) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.90x) against Stoke City's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.43
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.78
0.94
Blackburn xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
3%
33.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.94 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 23W 12D 25L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn's form line: 18W 16D 26L from 60 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Stoke City against 1.17 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (13W 7D 10L).
On the road, Blackburn have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stoke City are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.03 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 23W 12D 25L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 18W 16D 26L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Blackburn away?
Stoke City's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.53 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Blackburn in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 3 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won 0-3 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stoke City have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Stoke City
2
Draws
2
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 6, Blackburn have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2026, when Blackburn 1-2 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Blackburn?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 57%, Blackburn 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Stoke City) and 53% (Blackburn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Blackburn in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Stoke City's recent matches and 43% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Stoke City's matches and 53% of Blackburn's.
Do Stoke City and Blackburn tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More UK football predictions →