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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stoke City edge out Blackburn 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Blackburn 1-0 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.09 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.82 / defence 1.05 against Blackburn attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 38% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 31%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 43%, Blackburn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Blackburn's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.12 PPG, Blackburn 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights