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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Wed 21 Jan 2026

19:45

Venue

St. Mary's Stadium

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Southampton Win

46%

Southampton

2.17

26%

Draw

3.90

28%

Sheffield Utd

3.53

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.3%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.4%

Home win

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.66

Southampton xG

Total xG

2.92

1.26

Sheffield Utd xG

46%
26%
28%
SouthamptonDrawSheffield Utd

2.17

46%

Home win

3.90

26%

Draw

3.53

28%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.70

41%

BTTS No

2.42

Clean Sheet

28%

Southampton

3.52

19%

Sheffield Utd

5.26

Win to Nil

13%

Southampton

7.63

5%

Sheffield Utd

18.59

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4 6.8 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1
1 9.0 11.3 7.1 3.0 0.9 0.2
2 7.4 9.4 5.9 2.5 0.8 0.2
3 4.1 5.2 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2
5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.660
λ Away (xG) 1.258
Total xG 2.918
League avg home goals 1.343
League avg away goals 1.149
Southampton attack strength 0.948
Southampton defence strength 0.996
Sheffield Utd attack strength 1.099
Sheffield Utd defence strength 1.304
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 27 / 72