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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 14 Sep 2025

12:00

Venue

St. Mary's Stadium

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Portsmouth Win

32%

Southampton

3.08

27%

Draw

3.76

41%

Portsmouth

2.44

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.6%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.7%

Away win

1 – 0

9.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.19

Southampton xG

Total xG

2.55

1.36

Portsmouth xG

32%
27%
41%
SouthamptonDrawPortsmouth

3.08

32%

Home win

3.76

27%

Draw

2.44

41%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

26%

Southampton

3.91

31%

Portsmouth

3.27

Win to Nil

8%

Southampton

12.04

13%

Portsmouth

7.99

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.8 10.7 7.3 3.3 1.1 0.3
1 9.3 12.6 8.6 3.9 1.3 0.4
2 5.5 7.5 5.1 2.3 0.8 0.2
3 2.2 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.185
λ Away (xG) 1.364
Total xG 2.549
League avg home goals 1.290
League avg away goals 1.225
Southampton attack strength 0.937
Southampton defence strength 1.174
Portsmouth attack strength 0.949
Portsmouth defence strength 0.980
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 4 / 50