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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sat 27 Sep 2025

15:00

Venue

St. Mary's Stadium

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Middlesbrough Win

25%

Southampton

4.00

26%

Draw

3.84

49%

Middlesbrough

2.04

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

12.5%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

0 – 2

9.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.99

Southampton xG

Total xG

2.49

1.50

Middlesbrough xG

25%
26%
49%
SouthamptonDrawMiddlesbrough

4.00

25%

Home win

3.84

26%

Draw

2.04

49%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.05

51%

BTTS No

1.95

Clean Sheet

22%

Southampton

4.47

37%

Middlesbrough

2.69

Win to Nil

6%

Southampton

17.89

18%

Middlesbrough

5.49

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.3 12.5 9.3 4.7 1.7 0.5
1 8.2 12.3 9.2 4.6 1.7 0.5
2 4.1 6.1 4.6 2.3 0.9 0.3
3 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.989
λ Away (xG) 1.497
Total xG 2.486
League avg home goals 1.233
League avg away goals 1.176
Southampton attack strength 0.816
Southampton defence strength 1.036
Middlesbrough attack strength 1.228
Middlesbrough defence strength 0.983
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 6 / 52