Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 44

Kick-off

Tue 21 Apr 2026

19:45

Venue

St. Mary's Stadium

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Southampton Win

54%

Southampton

1.85

30%

Draw

3.37

16%

Bristol City

6.20

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.6%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

12.3%

Home win

1 – 1

11.7%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.48

Southampton xG

Total xG

2.19

0.71

Bristol City xG

54%
30%
16%
SouthamptonDrawBristol City

1.85

54%

Home win

3.37

30%

Draw

6.20

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

64%

Over 1.5

1.56

36%

Under 1.5

2.78

37%

Over 2.5

2.70

63%

Under 2.5

1.59

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.45

59%

BTTS No

1.69

Clean Sheet

49%

Southampton

2.03

23%

Bristol City

4.41

Win to Nil

27%

Southampton

3.74

4%

Bristol City

27.32

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.2 7.9 2.8 0.7 0.1
1 16.6 11.7 4.1 1.0 0.2
2 12.3 8.7 3.1 0.7 0.1
3 6.1 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
4 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
5 0.7 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.483
λ Away (xG) 0.707
Total xG 2.190
League avg home goals 1.269
League avg away goals 1.170
Southampton attack strength 1.241
Southampton defence strength 0.716
Bristol City attack strength 0.844
Bristol City defence strength 0.942
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 43 / 89