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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 19

Kick-off

Sat 6 Dec 2025

15:00

Venue

St. Mary's Stadium

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Southampton Win

47%

Southampton

2.14

30%

Draw

3.35

24%

Birmingham

4.26

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.2%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

13.0%

Draw

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.24

Southampton xG

Total xG

2.04

0.79

Birmingham xG

47%
30%
24%
SouthamptonDrawBirmingham

2.14

47%

Home win

3.35

30%

Draw

4.26

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

60%

Over 1.5

1.67

40%

Under 1.5

2.50

33%

Over 2.5

3.03

67%

Under 2.5

1.49

15%

Over 3.5

6.67

85%

Under 3.5

1.18

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

39%

BTTS Yes

2.55

61%

BTTS No

1.64

Clean Sheet

45%

Southampton

2.21

29%

Birmingham

3.47

Win to Nil

21%

Southampton

4.74

7%

Birmingham

14.76

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 13.0 10.3 4.1 1.1 0.2
1 16.2 12.9 5.1 1.4 0.3
2 10.1 8.0 3.2 0.8 0.2
3 4.2 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
4 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.244
λ Away (xG) 0.794
Total xG 2.038
League avg home goals 1.339
League avg away goals 1.248
Southampton attack strength 0.935
Southampton defence strength 0.919
Birmingham attack strength 0.693
Birmingham defence strength 0.993
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 18 / 18