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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Wednesday and Watford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 37, as Sheffield Wednesday and Watford drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 0.75 xG and Watford 1.60 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.62 / defence 1.39 against Watford attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 82/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 16% | Draw 28% | Watford 56%, with Watford to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 54%, Watford 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Watford's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Watford arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights