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Swansea cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.06 xG and Swansea 1.18 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Swansea outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against Swansea attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 33% | Draw 29% | Swansea 38%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 55%, Swansea 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Swansea's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.20 PPG, Swansea 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights