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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Stoke City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sheffield Wednesday.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-3 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.39 xG and Stoke City 1.05 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Stoke City outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Stoke City attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 45% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 28%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 53%, Stoke City 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stoke City's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.23 PPG, Stoke City 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights