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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Wednesday cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Wednesday beat Stoke City 2-0 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.10 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stoke City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Stoke City attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 37% | Draw 32% | Stoke City 31%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 46%, Stoke City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Stoke City's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.22 PPG, Stoke City 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Wednesday win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights