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Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Sheffield Wednesday 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.09 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.64 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sheffield Wednesday fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.01 / defence 1.34 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.18 / defence 0.80, drawn from 83/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 25% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Utd 50%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 52%, Sheffield Utd 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.36 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights