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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Wednesday and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 7, as Sheffield Wednesday and QPR drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.22 xG and QPR 1.82 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. QPR landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.69 / defence 1.38 against QPR attack 1.12 / defence 1.43, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 26% | Draw 23% | QPR 51%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 54%, QPR 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.19 PPG, QPR 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights