Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
QPR make the trip to Hillsborough to face Sheffield Wednesday in Championship, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sheffield Wednesday have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Hillsborough, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Sheffield Wednesday against 1.50 for QPR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sheffield Wednesday, 0 for QPR and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Sheffield Wednesday winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sheffield Wednesday — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
QPR — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 34% versus QPR 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 48% | QPR 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.55 xG and QPR 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.110 / defence 0.987 | QPR attack 1.069 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.125. Data: 50 Sheffield Wednesday games / 50 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 46% | Draw 25% | QPR 29%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 3.45. Sheffield Wednesday hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Wednesday are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Wednesday 40% | QPR 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 46% | Draw 25% | QPR 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.55 / QPR 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.110 / def 0.987 | QPR attack 1.069 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
1.19
QPR xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 1 QPR.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 46% chance of winning, QPR a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and QPR?
Record (2 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 2W | Draws 0 | QPR 0W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and QPR in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. QPR (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday's attack at 1.11x the league average against QPR's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.07x) against Sheffield Wednesday's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
46%
2.19
25%
3.97
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.73
1.19
QPR xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
6%
16.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.19 for QPR, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Wednesday come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 8D 26L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.22 PPG from 50 outings (16W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Sheffield Wednesday against 1.22 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sheffield Wednesday's home form reads 9W 7D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.32 points per game from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.06 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Early Season
QPR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and QPR in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 16W 8D 26L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while QPR have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or QPR away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 1.36 PPG; QPR away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 3-0 on 4 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sheffield Wednesday
2
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and QPR?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, QPR have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when QPR 3-0 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and QPR?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 48%, QPR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 44% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in 32% of games; QPR in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 44% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 44% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and QPR tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, QPR in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 5, as Sheffield Wednesday and QPR drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.55 xG and QPR 1.19 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against QPR attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 46% | Draw 25% | QPR 29%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 48%, QPR 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.12 PPG, QPR 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.