Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday's attack at 0.99x the league average against Preston's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.69
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.84
1.21
Preston xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
5%
18.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.21 for Preston, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.