🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Portsmouth defy the odds to beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.28 xG and Portsmouth 1.19 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sheffield Wednesday fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.67 / defence 1.45 against Portsmouth attack 0.72 / defence 1.37, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 38% | Draw 28% | Portsmouth 34%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Portsmouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 56%, Portsmouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Portsmouth's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 0.94 PPG, Portsmouth 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Portsmouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights