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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Wednesday and Portsmouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 45, as Sheffield Wednesday and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.68 xG and Portsmouth 1.31 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Portsmouth attack 1.03 / defence 1.46, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 46% | Draw 24% | Portsmouth 30%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 50%, Portsmouth 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Portsmouth's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights