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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Sheffield Wednesday 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 0.83 xG and Middlesbrough 1.91 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sheffield Wednesday fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Middlesbrough landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.68 / defence 1.53 against Middlesbrough attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 16% | Draw 22% | Middlesbrough 63%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 55%, Middlesbrough 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.14 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights