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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sheffield Wednesday defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Wednesday beat Middlesbrough 2-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.08 xG and Middlesbrough 1.53 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.84 / defence 1.30 against Middlesbrough attack 1.18 / defence 1.01, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 27% | Draw 26% | Middlesbrough 48%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Sheffield Wednesday win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 49%, Middlesbrough 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.19 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Wednesday win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights