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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Wednesday and Hull City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 23, as Sheffield Wednesday and Hull City drew 2-2 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 0.92 xG and Hull City 2.52 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.62 / defence 1.61 against Hull City attack 1.34 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 11% | Draw 17% | Hull City 72%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 55%, Hull City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Hull City's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.00 PPG, Hull City 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights