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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Sheffield Wednesday 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.09 xG and Hull City 1.25 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sheffield Wednesday fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.96 / defence 1.29 against Hull City attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 32% | Draw 28% | Hull City 40%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 51%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hull City's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.24 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights