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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Sheffield Wednesday 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Sheffield Wednesday 1-2 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.34 xG and Coventry 1.46 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.06 / defence 1.31 against Coventry attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 35% | Draw 25% | Coventry 40%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 49%, Coventry 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Coventry's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.26 PPG, Coventry 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights