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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 43, as Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 0.84 xG and Charlton 1.30 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.63 / defence 1.33 against Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 88/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 22% | Draw 32% | Charlton 46%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 52%, Charlton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights