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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Utd and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 36, as Sheffield Utd and West Brom drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.91 xG and West Brom 0.84 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sheffield Utd fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 1.23 / defence 0.96 against West Brom attack 0.72 / defence 1.19, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 61% | Draw 24% | West Brom 15%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 47%, West Brom 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (81 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

West Brom's trading profile (81 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights