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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Utd and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd and West Brom finished level at 1-1 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.16 xG and West Brom 0.84 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.89 / defence 0.76 against West Brom attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 42% | Draw 33% | West Brom 25%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 52%, West Brom 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

West Brom's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights