🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Sunderland 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd beat Sunderland 1-0 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.10 xG and Sunderland 0.71 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 1.04 / defence 0.68 against Sunderland attack 1.00 / defence 0.80, drawn from 17/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 43% | Draw 34% | Sunderland 22%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 56%, Sunderland 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Sunderland's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Sheffield Utd winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights