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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leeds cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sheffield Utd.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Sheffield Utd 1-3 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 0.96 xG and Leeds 1.39 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Leeds outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Leeds attack 1.41 / defence 0.72, drawn from 33/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 26% | Draw 28% | Leeds 46%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 54%, Leeds 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights