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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Hull City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd beat Hull City 2-1 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.50 xG and Hull City 1.48 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 / defence 1.16 against Hull City attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 36% | Draw 28% | Hull City 36%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 47%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Hull City's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.66 PPG, Hull City 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights