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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Hull City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sheffield Utd.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Sheffield Utd 0-3 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.23 xG and Hull City 0.69 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Utd fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 0.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.95 / defence 0.76 against Hull City attack 0.89 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 32% | Hull City 20%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 53%, Hull City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hull City's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.15 PPG, Hull City 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights