🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Derby cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sheffield Utd.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Sheffield Utd 1-3 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.01 xG and Derby 1.12 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Derby attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 40%, Derby 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Derby's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights