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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Utd cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cardiff.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd beat Cardiff 2-0 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.58 xG and Cardiff 1.12 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Cardiff attack 1.06 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 27%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 52%, Cardiff 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Cardiff's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.26 PPG, Cardiff 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights