Sheffield Utd 0-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Sheffield Utd take on Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bramall Lane plays host to Sheffield Utd versus Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sheffield Utd have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bramall Lane, Sheffield Utd have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bramall Lane. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Sheffield Utd. A 0.50 PPG lead over Burnley (2.60 vs 2.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Sheffield Utd have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Burnley in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sheffield Utd lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 45% versus Burnley 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 53% | Burnley 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 0.82 xG and Burnley 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 0.965 / defence 0.637 | Burnley attack 0.985 / defence 0.610. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.025. Burnley's defence strength of 0.610 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sheffield Utd's defence rating of 0.637 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 Sheffield Utd games / 22 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 35% | Draw 40% | Burnley 25%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 2.86 | Draw 2.50 | Burnley 4.00. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.47. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.47 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Burnley's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Final Verdict
Burnley lead the H2H ledger, but Sheffield Utd carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.47 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Utd 10% | Burnley 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 35% | Draw 40% | Burnley 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 28% | xG Sheffield Utd 0.82 / Burnley 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 0.965 / def 0.637 | Burnley attack 0.985 / def 0.610 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Burnley xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Burnley kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Sheffield Utd 0 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Burnley part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 35% chance of winning, Burnley a 25% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Burnley?
Record (4 meetings): Sheffield Utd 1W | Draws 0 | Burnley 3W.
What form are Sheffield Utd and Burnley in?
Sheffield Utd (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Burnley (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sheffield Utd's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.98x) against Sheffield Utd's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.4%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
40%
2.49
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
1.47
0.64
Burnley xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.49
40%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.54
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.0 | 14.8 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.6%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 0.64 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Utd's recent record stands at 18W 12D 30L from 60 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 26L across 60 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Sheffield Utd against 1.13 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sheffield Utd have managed 11W 5D 13L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 9W 7D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.15 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Utd and Burnley in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 18W 12D 30L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while Burnley have gone 17W 17D 26L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Burnley away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.31 PPG; Burnley away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Burnley go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 5-0 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Utd have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sheffield Utd
0
Draws
5
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Utd have won 1, Burnley have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Burnley 2-1 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 41%, Burnley 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sheffield Utd) and 48% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Burnley in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Utd play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 52% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Utd vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sheffield Utd's matches and 48% of Burnley's.
Do Sheffield Utd and Burnley tend to score early?
Sheffield Utd have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Burnley in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sheffield Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Sheffield Utd 0-2 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 0.82 xG and Burnley 0.64 xG, a combined 1.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sheffield Utd fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Burnley outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.96 / defence 0.64 against Burnley attack 0.98 / defence 0.61, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 35% | Draw 40% | Burnley 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Burnley win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 53%, Burnley 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.10 PPG, Burnley 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.