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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sheffield Utd and Bristol City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd and Bristol City finished level at 1-1 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.27 xG and Bristol City 1.04 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Bristol City attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 41% | Draw 29% | Bristol City 30%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 54%, Bristol City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol City's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.27 PPG, Bristol City 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights